Fun (or not so much fun) with math
Ottawa Senators fans have a very, very long week to digest last week’s abysmal performance, when the club picked up only one of a possible six points against three of the NHL’s weak sisters (or is that weak brothers or weak cousins?)
Anyway, here’s a little numbers game you can play while agonizing over the team’s fortunes and trying to figure out where they really sit in the standings. (In Gary Bettman’s world, it’s not always easy, given that the Atlanta Thrashers have played 42 games and the Florida Panthers and NY Islanders have played only 36.)
Begin with the premise that a team is unlikely to make the playoffs if it has fewer wins that combined losses (regulation losses, plus overtime and shootout defeats). As of Monday morning, every team in playoff position in both conferences had at least as many wins as losses. Only one team, the Columbus Blue Jackets, has more wins (20) than combined losses (19) and is on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.
By this math, the Senators have 16 wins and 24 losses — a minus eight, so to speak. Can they really win eight more games than they lose the rest of the way? With 42 games left, that means a record of something like 25-17-0, 26-15-1 or 27-14-1 would be necessary to qualify for the post-season.
A quick look at the plus/minus standings:
Eastern Conference
1.Pittsburgh: 25 W, 15 L, +10
2.Philadelphia: 24 W, 15 L, +9
3.Tampa Bay: 23 W, 16 L, +7
4.Washington: 23 W, 17 L, +6
5.NY Rangers: 22 W, 18 L, +4
6. Boston: 20 W, 17 L, +3
7.Montreal: 21 W, 19 L, +2
8. Atlanta: 21 W, 21 L, Even
9. Carolina: 18 W, 19 L, -1
10.Florida: 17 W, 19 L, -2
11.Buffalo: 16 W, 22 L, -6
12.Ottawa: 16 W, 24 L, -8
13.Toronto: 14 W, 23 L, -9
14.NY Islanders: 11 W, 25 L, -14
15.New Jersey: 10 W, 28 L, -18
Western Conference
1.Vancouver: 24 W, 13 L, +11
2.Detroit: 24 W, 15 L, +9
3.Dallas: 23 W, 17 L, +6
4.Los Angeles: 22 W, 16 L, +6
5.San Jose: 21 W, 18 L, +3
6.St. Louis: 20 W, 18 L, +2
7.Colorado: 20 W, 19 L, +1
8.Columbus: 20 W, 19 L, +1
9.Anaheim: 21 W, 21 L, Even
10.Chicago, 20 W, 20 L, Even
11.Nashville: 19 W, 19 L, Even
12.Minnesota: 18 W, 20 L, -2
13.Calgary: 18 W, 21 L, -3
14.Phoenix: 17 W, 21 L, -4
15.Edmonton: 12 W, 25 L, -13
Yeah we’re toast.
You just can’t keep dropping consecutive gamesa in a row to teams in your conference and expect to come out on top in a playoff spot.
This team has a ton of issues:
-Core players too old. A player’s prime used to be 27-31 but is it really at the moment? Look at players at the top of their games and they’re mostly in the 22-27 range. Few players in their 30s are dominating; those that do, like Lidstrom and St. Louis and so on, are anomalies.
-Team too old in general. Simply, we need more 19-24 year olds throughout the roster and less 30++ year olds. Stopgaps are fine for injury concerns but not for a growth model.
-Core has been together too long. Time for a chance here, players too comfortable.
-GM just not that good…Too enamored with pluggers, grinders, 30somethings, aged Russians. Focus needs to be on youth.
-Experience is overrated. How much experience do you need to push a puck up the ice? Or to be responsible defensively? Or to keep a training regimen? This team has tons of experience but they’ve only been past the second round twice.
-Not enough skilled forwards. Self-explanatory, time to start drafting these or trading for them.
It’s over.
Time for some real change; Murray has had a free pass by throwing people under the bus on a yearly basis and playing the Shawville card but that has to end. Clouston should stay. CLear out the vets, keep one or two around for historical purposes…move on….
Also, Ken, you need MORE than a .500 record because of OT points and so on. You likely nee a .550 or .575 or .600 record to be sure of a playoff spot, which puts the Senators into a more precarious position still.
I don’t think you have taken the analysis far enough, since the criteria is points and not wins, although I certainly concede that wins and points are related.
First of all if you look at recent past history, teams with less than 90 points made the playoffs only in two seasons, 02-03 and last year, 09-10. The average requirement to make the playoffs over that period was slightly in excess of 91 points. So for the sake of this analysis let’s say that the Sens or any other team) will need at least 90 points to make the playoffs. Because of the way points are allotted in the NHL a team therefore needs to finish with 8 more victories than regular time losses (since OT losses reap a single point they would be the equivalent of a tie pointwise under the old system and do not contribute either way to the plus/minus math). Example a team finishing 40-32-10 would get 80 points for the wins and 10 for the OT loses for 90 points total.
Secondly, consider that over an 82 game schedule the maximum points available would be 164. Therefore a team accumulating 90 points would be playing at a .549 level (based on points gathered versus points available)
The Sens are currently playing at a .463 pace (based as above on points garnered versus points available). In order to make the 90 point level they would need to make up 53 points in the last 42 games which means a .631 level the rest of the way.
Bringing this back to wins/ losses, that means the Sens would need to win 11 more games than regulation losses along that stretch so something like a 24-13-5 record would be necessary. That is quite a mountain to climb.
Even if they manage to do so, they would still only be at 90 points which based on past history is no lock for a playoff spot but only gives them a reasonable shot. Since 2002-03 no less than twelve teams have accumulated 90 points and still NOT made the playoffs.
Good luck to the Sens the rest of the way, but I think it is time to start planning for next season.